TW Rate Report · Week of September 25, 2026
The bond market had its worst week of the year, but the outlook improved anyway.
Red-hot business surveys pushed Treasury yields to 19-year highs and mortgage rates to a fifth straight weekly increase. Yet the pressure behind rates finally eased: oil broke sharply lower on truce talk, Berkshire Hathaway bet big on homebuilders, and the TW rate-environment score posted its first improvement in five weeks.
The broad weekly benchmark, released Thursday: a fifth straight increase and the highest since January 2025. National lock averages ran near 7.24% for conventional loans; the loan-type table below has the full picture.
My Monday read, Sep 28: the daily 30-yr index opened at 7.50% (+0.07) with bonds weaker. I expect pricing to start the week higher.
Rates by loan type · Thursday close, Sep 24
Where rates stand, by loan type
National averages, for perspective only. Every borrower's rate and APR depend on their own scenario, and these figures are not a quote, an offer, or a commitment of any kind.
| Product | Rate & APR (equal prominence) | Week over week |
|---|---|---|
| 30-yr Conventional | 7.24% Rate · 7.29% APR | ▲ 23 bp wk |
| 30-yr Jumbo | 7.25% Rate · 7.29% APR | ▲ 12 bp wk |
| 30-yr FHA | 6.95% Rate · 7.94% APR | ▲ 17 bp wk |
| 30-yr VA | 6.93% Rate · 7.19% APR | ▲ 24 bp wk |
| 7/6 SOFR ARM | 6.70% Yrs 1–7 fixed · 6.750% Then, adjusting · 6.77% APR | unchanged wk |
SourceFixed rates: Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI), the average of actual locked loans, via FRED, as of the Thursday close. 7/6 ARM: Mortgage News Daily Daily Rate Index, same date.
APR assumptionsAPRs are estimates, not quotes, on representative purchase scenarios: 20% down (3.5% FHA with upfront and annual MIP; 0% VA with the funding fee), 0 points, estimated closing costs of $12,500–$17,500. Only the finance charges defined by Regulation Z (about $1,995 in lender fees, 15 days of prepaid interest, and any financed upfront mortgage insurance) are included in the APR.
7/6 ARM termsRate fixed for 7 years, then adjusts every 6 months to the 30-day average SOFR plus 3.00% (6.750% fully indexed today), with 2/1/5 caps. The rate, APR and payment can increase after the fixed period.
Not an offerNational averages for information only; not an offer of credit, a commitment to lend, or a rate lock. Your rate and APR will differ.
Rates can move quickly around Wednesday's inflation report and Friday's jobs report. A quote you see Tuesday may not exist Thursday, in either direction. If you have a loan in process, this is a good week to talk with your loan officer about your rate-lock options. Buying new construction? Ask about builder-paid buydowns; they can be worth more than a full point of rate.
The TW Rate Environment Score™
This week's rate environment: Balanced, and improving
▲ 9 points vs last week (32 → 41).
A 0–100 read on how favorable conditions are for mortgage rates, on a locked six-factor formula. Higher = more rate-friendly.
The first rise in the score in five weeks, and it wasn't because rates fell; they rose again. It's because the pressure behind them eased: oil finally broke lower, builder sentiment snapped back, market volatility stayed low, and the weekly rise in the 30-year fixed slowed from 19 basis points to 8. Wednesday's inflation report is the next test of whether the improvement holds.
03 · The why
Three forces pushing rates up, one finally pulling down
The economy is running too hot.
September's business surveys were the strongest since 2021: services printed 58.7 against a 56.0 forecast, with input costs at a four-year high, and a top Fed official said more rate increases are “likely to be needed.” That is what broke the bond market midweek.
Another Fed hike is 73% priced for Oct 28.
The hike itself can do only limited further damage. The risk is the data that would confirm it: Wednesday's PCE inflation report and Friday's jobs report. Jobless claims near half-century lows say the economy isn't blinking.
The war premium is still in every price.
Constrained oil supply feeds energy-led inflation, which keeps the Fed hiking and the 10-year above 5%. Strip out energy and core inflation runs just 2.4%. This is an oil story.
But oil finally broke: down 7.9%.
U.S.–Iran truce talks took WTI to $92.41, the first weekly drop since August and the first genuine disinflation news in a month. If it holds, it reaches October's inflation prints, the real path back below 7%. Berkshire's roughly 10% Lennar stake says smart money sees the bottom in housing.
04 · What could move rates
The week ahead: five days that decide the October hike
Dallas Fed manufacturing (10:30am ET). The only quiet day of the week.
August JOLTS job openings and consumer confidence (10:00am). Case-Shiller home prices (9:00am).
August PCE inflation, 8:30am: the week's main event. Chair Warsh pegged it near 3.6%. ADP payrolls, Q2 GDP final, quarter-end.
Weekly jobless claims (8:30am). ISM Manufacturing (10:00am).
September jobs report, 8:30am: the biggest catalyst. August printed +162,000 vs about 55,000 expected.
05 · The trend
Twelve weeks of rates and the 10-year
30-yr fixed (Freddie Mac)10-yr Treasury
Weekly Thursday readings, July 9 to September 24, 2026 (FRED: Freddie Mac PMMS and the 10-year Treasury constant maturity). The 30-year fixed rose from 6.49% to 7.03% as the 10-year climbed from 4.54% to 5.18%; the gap between them narrowed from 1.95 to 1.85 points.
The full data: dashboard, score factors, inflation, builders, timeline
Market dashboard · Friday close, Sep 25
| Measure | Latest | Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-yr Treasury | 5.16% | ▲ 16 bp | Highest weekly close since 2007; touched 5.22% Thursday |
| 30-yr Treasury | 5.49% | ▲ 15 bp | 10s30s spread 33 bp, from 34: long-bond confidence steady |
| 2-yr Treasury | 4.86% | ▲ 12 bp | Front end repriced for an October hike |
| Freddie Mac 30-yr fixed | 7.03% | ▲ 8 bp | Fifth straight rise; highest since January 2025 |
| WTI crude | $92.41 | ▼ 7.9% | First weekly decline since late August; Brent still above $100 |
| Gasoline (AAA avg) | $4.48 | ▲ 5¢ | Record for the date; the pump lags the barrel |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 100.97 | ▲ 0.5% | Two-month high; capital pulled toward U.S. yields |
| S&P 500 | 7,743.41 | ▲ 1.2% | Bought the bond-market dip |
| VIX | 14.87 | ▼ 3.4% | The volatility moved to bonds, not away |
| Jobless claims | 197,000 | ▼ 1,000 | Near 1969 lows; no help coming from labor |
| New home sales (Aug) | 684,000 | ▲ 6.4% m/m | Builder price cuts are moving homes; median price down 5.8% y/y |
How the score is calculated
| Factor | Weight | Value | This week's reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rate direction | 30% | 31.3 | Freddie Mac 30-yr up 8 bp on the week |
| Inflation trend | 20% | 30.0 | CPI 3.4% y/y, flat vs the prior print |
| Mortgage spread | 15% | 58.2 | 7.03 − 5.16 = 1.87 points, narrower |
| Builder momentum | 15% | 50.0 | Builder basket up on the week; NAHB index at a one-year low (rule: mixed) |
| Market calm (VIX) | 10% | 75.0 | VIX 14.87 |
| Fed path | 10% | 15.0 | Hiking; about 73% odds of an Oct 28 increase |
Every input is set by a fixed rule from the data, so the same week always produces the same score.
Inflation transmission: why oil matters
| Measure | Latest | Period | What it signals |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | 3.4% y/y | August | Headline inflation remains well above the 2% goal |
| Core CPI | 2.4% y/y | August | Underlying inflation is far tamer than the headline |
| CPI energy | +16.3% y/y | August | The oil shock is what's broadening headline pressure |
| Gasoline CPI | +3.9% m/m | August | Gasoline drove over a third of August's monthly CPI rise |
| PCE (Fed's gauge) | 3.7% y/y | July | August prints Wednesday; Chair Warsh pegged it near 3.6% |
| Core PCE | 3.3% y/y | July | Persistent, but the gap to core CPI shows the energy skew |
| PPI | 5.4% y/y | August | Wholesale costs reaccelerated: pipeline pressure for later months |
August CPI and PPI were released September 11 and 16. July is the latest available PCE reading; August PCE arrives Wednesday, September 30 at 8:30am ET.
Rate-sensitive stocks · Fri Sep 18 to Fri Sep 25
| Ticker | Week | Friday close | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| LEN | +7.48% | $82.15 | Berkshire builds a ~10% stake |
| TOL | +3.22% | $137.34 | |
| DHI | +2.53% | $141.51 | |
| ITB | +2.31% | $89.43 | Homebuilder ETF |
| PHM | +2.21% | $119.85 | |
| BLDR | +1.81% | $59.17 | First week outside the S&P 500 |
| XLRE | −2.28% | $41.56 | REITs price directly off the 10-year |
Friday close to Friday close, September 18 to 25. Green = a move that tends to help mortgage-rate sentiment.
The war premium: how we got here
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran begin the conflict; rate-cut expectations start to unravel.
Strait of Hormuz traffic collapses: the oil-supply shock that has driven energy inflation since.
Fighting resumes after a lull; oil and bond risk premiums rebuild.
Iran proposes a conditional seven-day plan covering Hormuz, sanctions and frozen assets.
President Trump rejects the proposal; the blockade and the war premium stay in place.
Qatari mediators expected to hold separate talks with Iran and the U.S. on an amended plan: the truce hope that took 8% out of WTI.
At 41, the score is back in Balanced for the first time in five weeks, but the 10-year sits at a 19-year high and the Fed is 73% priced to hike again. Wednesday's PCE report and Friday's jobs report decide which force wins, and both can move lender pricing the same day. If you have a loan in process, this is the week to review your options with your loan officer.
“Rates rose again: the 30-year hit 7.03%, with national lock averages near 7.24%, because the economy is too hot for the Fed. But oil fell 8%, the first real disinflation news in a month. Shopping new construction? Ask for the builder-paid buydown. Warren Buffett just bought into the companies paying for them.”
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Rates move daily.
Good advice doesn't.
Sources, methodology & disclaimer
Figures were verified against primary sources at publication. Loan-type rates are the Optimal Blue OBMMI average of actual locked loans as of the Thursday, September 24 close (FRED posts each day's value the next business day); macro figures are Friday, September 25 closes. Rate measures are never averaged across providers because samples, timing, points and borrower profiles differ. Weekly changes are Friday close to Friday close unless noted.
- Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI) via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: loan-type lock averages, Thursday, September 24, 2026 close.
- Mortgage News Daily Daily Rate Index (7/6 SOFR ARM series and fixed-rate cross-checks), September 24, 2026.
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released September 24, 2026.
- U.S. Department of the Treasury daily par yield curve, September 25, 2026 close.
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York: 30-day average SOFR via FRED, September 24, 2026.
- CME FedWatch: October 27–28, 2026 meeting probabilities, as of September 25, 2026.
- S&P Global: September 2026 flash PMIs, released September 23, 2026.
- U.S. Census Bureau / HUD: New Residential Sales, August 2026, released September 25, 2026.
- U.S. Department of Labor: initial jobless claims, week ended September 19, 2026.
- Market data: WTI futures settlement, U.S. Dollar Index, S&P 500, VIX; Friday, September 25, 2026 closes. AAA national average gasoline price.
- Builder-stock Friday closes, September 18 and 25, 2026 (S&P Global Market Intelligence via stockanalysis.com).
- NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, September 2026.
- Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index, August 2026 (released September 11 and 16).
- Bureau of Economic Analysis: Personal Income and Outlays (PCE), July 2026; August 2026 release scheduled September 30.
Disclaimer: This report is for general educational and informational purposes only and reflects data as of September 25, 2026; it does not update automatically after publication. It is not financial, investment, tax, or lending advice, and not a commitment to lend, a rate lock, or an offer of credit. Data is sourced from public reporting and may be revised or restated after this report is published. Mortgage rates referenced will vary by credit profile, loan type, down payment, property type, and lender, and can change daily. Verify all figures independently before relying on them for a financial decision.
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