TW Rate Report · Week of October 9, 2026
Mortgage rates rose for a seventh straight week, but the bond market stopped going with them.
The Freddie Mac 30-year average climbed to 7.40%, a seventh straight increase and the highest reading since November 2023. The week underneath that number told a different story: Treasury yields touched 24-year highs on Wednesday, both of the week's big government bond auctions found real buyers anyway, an oil supply scare on Thursday failed to hold, and the 10-year finished the week lower than it started. The Freddie Mac survey closes on Wednesday, so it caught the worst of the week and none of the recovery.
The broad weekly benchmark, released Thursday: a seventh straight increase and the highest reading since November 2023. It is a Monday-to-Wednesday survey, so it captured the bond selloff at its peak and not the recovery that followed on Thursday and Friday; the loan-type table below has the full picture.
My Monday read, Oct 12: the daily 30-yr index closed Friday at 7.48% (-0.09 on the week). Monday's reading posts later today.
Rates by loan type · Thursday close, Oct 8
Where rates stand, by loan type
National averages, for perspective only. Every borrower's rate and APR depend on their own scenario, and these figures are not a quote, an offer, or a commitment of any kind.
| Product | Rate & APR (equal prominence) | Week over week |
|---|---|---|
| 30-yr Conventional | 7.42% Rate · 7.47% APR | ▲ 6 bp wk |
| 30-yr Jumbo | 7.37% Rate · 7.41% APR | ▲ 4 bp wk |
| 30-yr FHA | 7.18% Rate · 8.18% APR | ▲ 8 bp wk |
| 30-yr VA | 7.09% Rate · 7.36% APR | ▲ 8 bp wk |
| 7/6 SOFR ARM | 6.95% Yrs 1–7 fixed · 6.750% Then, adjusting · 6.90% APR | ▲ 8 bp wk |
SourceFixed rates: Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI), the average of actual locked loans, via FRED, as of the Thursday close. 7/6 ARM: Mortgage News Daily Daily Rate Index, same date.
APR assumptionsAPRs are estimates, not quotes, on representative purchase scenarios: 20% down (3.5% FHA with upfront and annual MIP; 0% VA with the funding fee), 0 points, estimated closing costs of $12,500–$17,500. Only the finance charges defined by Regulation Z (about $1,995 in lender fees, 15 days of prepaid interest, and any financed upfront mortgage insurance) are included in the APR.
7/6 ARM termsRate fixed for 7 years, then adjusts every 6 months to the 30-day average SOFR plus 3.00% (6.750% fully indexed today), with 2/1/5 caps. The rate, APR and payment can increase after the fixed period.
Not an offerNational averages for information only; not an offer of credit, a commitment to lend, or a rate lock. Your rate and APR will differ.
Monday is Columbus Day, so the bond market is closed and most lenders will not publish fresh pricing until Tuesday. That makes this a four-day week with one number in it that really matters: Wednesday's September inflation report, which forecasters expect to come in higher than August's and which the Fed carries into its October 28 meeting. If you have a loan in process, set your lock target with your loan officer before Wednesday morning rather than after it, because most of the move happens in the first hour. Buying new construction? Ask about builder-paid buydowns. Builder confidence is at a one-year low and nearly four in ten builders are cutting prices, so that is where the real money is right now.
The TW Rate Environment Score™
This week's rate environment: Still cautious, but the selloff met resistance
▲ 3 points vs last week (30 → 33).
A 0–100 read on how favorable conditions are for mortgage rates, on a locked six-factor formula. Higher = more rate-friendly.
The reading improved for the first time in two weeks, and the reason is the shape of the move rather than its direction. The weekly rise in the 30-year benchmark was less than half of last week's, and market volatility slipped back below 15, which is the calmest setting this scale has. Pulling the other way: the gap between the Freddie Mac average and the 10-year Treasury widened again, builder confidence is still at a one-year low with the stock basket down a second straight week, and the Fed is still tightening. Wednesday's inflation report decides whether the improvement continues or stops here.
03 · The why
Two forces still pushing rates up, two that finally pushed back
Yields hit 24-year highs in the middle of the week.
A global bond selloff picked up speed on Wednesday as Brent crude traded above $100, taking the 10-year Treasury to its highest level since 2002 and the 30-year to a fresh 24-year high. The Treasury had roughly $119 billion of new notes and bonds to place into that, the kind of supply that has been moving lender pricing more than the economic data lately.
The Fed still has one more increase in it.
Wednesday's minutes from the September meeting showed the quarter-point hike was unanimous, with all 19 participants behind it, and that most officials still think another increase will be appropriate by year end. October is now roughly 84% priced for a hold, but December is priced somewhere between 65% and 75% for a hike depending on which market you read. The calendar slipped; the direction did not.
Buyers showed up at these yields.
The real test this week was supply, and it passed twice. Wednesday's $39 billion 10-year auction saw central banks and other indirect bidders take 80.3% of it against a 72.4% recent average, and Thursday's $22.5 billion 30-year sale cleared at the highest yield since August 2000 with bids covering it 2.54 times, above its own recent average. When the long end finds buyers without having to pay up for them, a selloff loses its engine.
The oil shock did not stick.
Thursday had everything a rate scare needs: a record 10 tankers struck in the Strait of Hormuz in a single week, Hurricane Isaias shutting in about 500,000 barrels a day, a quarter of Gulf of Mexico output, and crude up 3.6% in a session. Then the White House said there would be no strike on Iran before the November midterms, crude handed most of the move back, and the week ended with both the 10-year and the 30-year lower than they started.
04 · What could move rates
The week ahead: a bond market holiday, then the inflation report that decides December
Columbus Day. The bond market is closed and most lenders will not publish new pricing, so Friday's levels carry into Tuesday. Stock markets are open; no economic data.
September existing home sales (10:00am ET) and NFIB small business optimism (6:00am). Third-quarter earnings season opens before the bell with JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth.
September CPI, 8:30am: the week's main event. Forecasts are near 3.6% on the year, up from 3.4%, with core near 2.5%. A core reading of 0.3% or more for the month would put an October hike back in the conversation. Mortgage applications at 7:00am and the Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast at 11:00am.
A crowded 8:30am: September PPI, September retail sales, weekly jobless claims and the Empire and Philadelphia Fed surveys. Wholesale prices are expected near 0.5% for the month and retail sales near 0.3%, after a 1.2% August.
No major U.S. economic releases. Regional bank earnings continue (Truist, Travelers, Regions, M&T, Citizens) and the Baker Hughes rig count lands at 1:00pm.
05 · The trend
Twelve weeks of rates and the 10-year
30-yr fixed (Freddie Mac)10-yr Treasury
Weekly Thursday readings, July 23 to October 8, 2026 (FRED: Freddie Mac PMMS and the 10-year Treasury constant maturity). The 30-year fixed rose from 6.58% to 7.40% as the 10-year went from 4.71% to 5.22%; the gap between them widened from 1.87 to 2.18 points.
The full data: dashboard, score factors, inflation, builders, timeline
Market dashboard · Friday close, Oct 9
| Measure | Latest | Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-yr Treasury | 5.24% | ▼ 4 bp | Touched its highest level since 2002 on Wednesday, then finished the week lower than it started |
| 30-yr Treasury | 5.60% | ▼ 3 bp | A fresh 24-year high midweek, and the 30-year auction still cleared without a buyers' strike |
| 2-yr Treasury | 4.80% | ▼ 3 bp | The front end has written October off and is now arguing about December |
| Freddie Mac 30-yr fixed | 7.40% | ▲ 12 bp | Seventh straight rise and the highest since November 2023; the survey closed Wednesday, before the calm |
| WTI crude | $91.85 | ▲ 0.8% | Spiked 3.6% Thursday on Hormuz tanker attacks and a Gulf hurricane, then gave it back; Brent near $105 |
| Gasoline (AAA avg) | $4.37 | ▼ 2¢ | Second straight weekly decline, but still about 39% above a year ago |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 102.23 | ▲ 0.3% | A fourth straight weekly gain and the strongest dollar since April 2025 |
| S&P 500 | 7,811.54 | ▲ 1.2% | Set a record midweek and rebounded Friday from a tech selloff: stocks are not worried |
| VIX | 14.84 | ▼ 3.1% | Back below 15: the stress stayed in bonds, not stocks |
| Jobless claims | 197,000 | ▼ 2,000 | Lowest since July and a fourth straight week under 200,000: no help coming from layoffs |
| Existing home sales (Aug) | 3.98 million | ▼ 2.0% m/m | September's reading lands Tuesday; supply is up to 4.9 months, the loosest in years |
| Mortgage applications | ▼ 4.2% | ▼ 8% refis | Week ended October 2: purchase applications off 2%, refinances off 8% as rates spiked |
How the score is calculated
| Factor | Weight | Value | This week's reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rate direction | 30% | 22.0 | Freddie Mac 30-yr up 12 bp on the week |
| Inflation trend | 20% | 30.0 | CPI 3.4% y/y, flat vs the prior print |
| Mortgage spread | 15% | 51.0 | 7.40 − 5.24 = 2.16 points, wider |
| Builder momentum | 15% | 25.0 | Basket lower a second straight week, with D.R. Horton the only one flat; NAHB index at a one-year low (rule: falling) |
| Market calm (VIX) | 10% | 75.0 | VIX 14.84 |
| Fed path | 10% | 15.0 | Still tightening: about 84% odds of a hold on Oct 28, but the minutes show most officials expect one more hike by year end |
Every input is set by a fixed rule from the data, so the same week always produces the same score.
Inflation transmission: why oil matters
| Measure | Latest | Period | What it signals |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | 3.4% y/y | August | Still more than a point above the Fed's 2% goal, and Wednesday's September reading is expected to be higher |
| Core CPI | 2.4% y/y | August | The lowest since March 2021: underlying inflation is close to the Fed's target |
| CPI energy | +16.3% y/y | August | The war premium is what keeps the headline elevated |
| Gasoline CPI | +3.9% m/m | August | Drove more than a third of August's monthly CPI increase; up 27.4% on the year |
| PCE (Fed's gauge) | 3.4% y/y | August | Came in below forecasts on September 30; September prints at month end |
| Core PCE | 3.0% y/y | August | Expected 3.3%; July was revised down to 3.0% as well |
| PPI | 5.4% y/y | August | September wholesale prices print Thursday, expected near 0.5% for the month |
August CPI and PPI were released September 11 and 16, and August PCE followed on September 30. September CPI is the next read, Wednesday, October 14 at 8:30am ET, with forecasts near 3.6% headline and 2.5% core. September PPI and retail sales land Thursday, October 15, and September PCE arrives at the end of the month.
Rate-sensitive stocks · Fri Oct 2 to Fri Oct 9
| Ticker | Week | Friday close | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| XLRE | +1.96% | $41.61 | REITs price directly off the 10-year, and the 10-year fell |
| DHI | −0.09% | $134.88 | Flat: the only builder in the basket that held its ground |
| ITB | −2.17% | $84.76 | Homebuilder ETF |
| TOL | −2.55% | $133.13 | Least exposed to entry-level buyers |
| PHM | −3.12% | $112.12 | |
| LEN | −3.91% | $76.69 | Has now given back nearly all of its late-September Berkshire pop |
| BLDR | −6.04% | $52.85 | Building products: the first to feel a slowdown in starts |
Friday close to Friday close, October 2 to October 9. Green = a move that tends to help mortgage-rate sentiment.
How the bond market found a floor
The Fed raises its target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. The minutes released this week show the vote was unanimous and that most officials still expect one more increase by year end.
NAHB builder confidence falls three points to 32, a one-year low, with 38% of builders cutting prices. That is still the latest reading; October's lands October 19.
September payrolls land at 29,000 against about 85,000 expected, and an October Fed hike comes off the table.
A global bond selloff takes the 10-year to its highest level since 2002 and the 30-year to a 24-year high. Then a $39 billion 10-year auction draws unusually strong demand, with indirect bidders taking 80.3% of it, and yields back off their highs.
Iran's attacks on Hormuz tankers hit a record pace, 10 vessels struck in a week, and Hurricane Isaias shuts in about a quarter of Gulf of Mexico output. Crude jumps 3.6%. A $22.5 billion 30-year auction clears at the highest yield since August 2000 and still finds buyers.
The White House rules out a strike on Iran before the November midterms. Crude hands back most of Thursday's jump, jobless claims come in at their lowest since July, and both the 10-year and the 30-year close the week below where they opened it.
The rate environment is still Cautious: the Freddie Mac 30-year average is at 7.40%, its highest since November 2023, builder confidence sits at a one-year low, and the Fed's own minutes say most officials expect one more increase before the year is out. What changed this week is that the bond market stopped cooperating with the selloff. Yields hit 24-year highs on Wednesday, two large Treasury auctions found buyers anyway, an oil supply scare faded inside a day, and the 10-year ended the week lower than it started. Monday is a bond market holiday, so use it to set your lock target with your loan officer and be ready to act before Wednesday's inflation report, not after it.
“Rates rose a seventh straight week: the Freddie Mac 30-year average is 7.40%, the highest since November 2023. But the bond market quietly turned. Treasury yields hit 24-year highs Wednesday, then two huge government bond auctions found plenty of buyers, and the 10-year actually ended the week lower than it started. Wednesday's inflation report is the next test, and Monday is a bond market holiday, so lock decisions get made Tuesday. On new construction, keep asking for the builder-paid buydown: builder confidence is at a one-year low and nearly four in ten builders are cutting prices, so they are the ones paying for the rate.”
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Rates move daily.
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Sources, methodology & disclaimer
Figures were verified against primary sources at publication. Loan-type rates are the Optimal Blue OBMMI average of actual locked loans as of the Thursday, October 8 close (FRED posts each day's value the next business day); macro figures are Friday, October 9 closes. Rate measures are never averaged across providers because samples, timing, points and borrower profiles differ. Weekly changes are Friday close to Friday close unless noted.
- Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI) via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: loan-type lock averages, Thursday, October 8, 2026 close.
- Mortgage News Daily Daily Rate Index (7/6 SOFR ARM series and fixed-rate cross-checks), October 8, 2026.
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released October 8, 2026.
- U.S. Department of the Treasury daily par yield curve, October 9, 2026 close.
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York: 30-day average SOFR via FRED, October 8, 2026.
- Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index, August 2026 (CPI-U, not seasonally adjusted, via FRED).
- CME FedWatch: October 27 and 28, 2026 meeting probabilities (about 84% hold, 16% to 17% hike) and December 9, 2026 probabilities, as of October 9, 2026; cross-checked against Kalshi and Polymarket pricing aggregated by DeFi Rate (84% hold, 16% hike; December 9 hike about 74%).
- Federal Reserve: minutes of the September 15 and 16, 2026 FOMC meeting, released October 7, 2026; target range 3.75% to 4.00%.
- U.S. Treasury auction results: $39 billion 10-year note auction, October 7, 2026 (80.3% indirect bidders vs a 72.4% 10-auction average), and $22.5 billion 30-year bond auction, October 8, 2026 (high yield 5.618%, bid-to-cover 2.54); CNBC, Reuters and Bloomberg coverage.
- U.S. Department of Labor: initial jobless claims, week ended October 3, 2026, released October 8, 2026 (197,000, down 2,000).
- CNBC and Bloomberg: Hormuz tanker attacks and Hurricane Isaias Gulf of Mexico shut-ins, October 8, 2026; oil off highs after the U.S. ruled out strikes on Iran before the midterms, October 8 and 9, 2026.
- Market data: WTI and Brent crude, Friday, October 9, 2026 (OilPrice.com, Investrade, Trading Economics); U.S. Dollar Index 102.23 and S&P 500 close 7,811.54 (FRED series SP500); VIX close 14.84 (Cboe close, Friday, October 9, 2026; FRED had not posted it).
- AAA Fuel Prices: national average for regular gasoline, October 9, 2026 ($4.372, against $4.396 a week earlier).
- Mortgage Bankers Association: Weekly Applications Survey, week ended October 2, 2026, released October 7, 2026 (composite down 4.2%, refinances down 8%, purchases down 2%).
- National Association of Realtors: Existing-Home Sales, August 2026, released September 10, 2026 (3.98 million annual rate, down 2.0%, 4.9 months supply); September 2026 release scheduled October 13, 2026.
- Builder-stock Friday closes, October 2 and October 9, 2026 (stockanalysis.com).
- NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, September 2026 (32), released September 18, 2026; October index due October 19, 2026.
- Economic calendar for October 12 to 16, 2026, and September CPI and PPI consensus forecasts: Investing Live, Newsquawk, Investrade and Admiral Markets, October 9, 2026.
Disclaimer: This report is for general educational and informational purposes only and reflects data as of October 9, 2026; it does not update automatically after publication. It is not financial, investment, tax, or lending advice, and not a commitment to lend, a rate lock, or an offer of credit. Data is sourced from public reporting and may be revised or restated after this report is published. Mortgage rates referenced will vary by credit profile, loan type, down payment, property type, and lender, and can change daily. Verify all figures independently before relying on them for a financial decision.
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