TW Rate Report · Week of November 6, 2026
The war premium finally cracked, and mortgage rates went with it.
Democrats swept Tuesday's midterms, traders decided the Iran war now has an expiration date, and oil fell apart: WTI settled at $90.83, down 12.8% on the week, with Brent posting its worst week since 2020. The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.86% and Freddie Mac's benchmark 30-year rate fell for a third straight week. Then Friday's jobs report came in at nearly triple forecasts, and a December Fed hike went right back to being the market's base case.
The broad weekly benchmark, released Thursday: a third straight decline, and it came from the collapse in oil rather than from anything the Fed did. It is still 96 basis points above where it sat a year ago, so this is early relief from a high base, not a new trend.
My Monday read, Nov 9: the daily 30-yr index closed Friday at 7.17% (-0.10 on the week). Monday's reading posts later today.
Rates by loan type · Friday close, Nov 6
Where rates stand, by loan type
National averages, for perspective only. Every borrower's rate and APR depend on their own scenario, and these figures are not a quote, an offer, or a commitment of any kind.
| Product | Rate & APR (equal prominence) | Week over week |
|---|---|---|
| 30-yr Conventional | 7.09% Rate · 7.14% APR | ▼ 6 bp wk |
| 30-yr Jumbo MBA survey, week ending October 30, with 0.48 points · 10 bp below conforming in the same survey | 7.20% Rate · 7.29% APR | ▼ 8 bp wk |
| 30-yr FHA | 6.89% Rate · 7.88% APR | ▼ 11 bp wk |
| 30-yr VA | 6.67% Rate · 6.93% APR | ▼ 9 bp wk |
| 7/6 SOFR ARM | 6.50% Yrs 1–7 fixed · 6.875% Then, adjusting · 6.72% APR | ▼ 28 bp wk |
SourceConventional, FHA and VA: Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI), the average of actual locked loans, via FRED, as of the Friday close. Jumbo: Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Applications Survey, the average contract rate on jumbo applications (80% loan-to-value, 0.48 points including the origination fee) for the week ending October 30, released November 4, so it runs a week behind the other rows. ARM: Mortgage News Daily Daily Rate Index, same date as the fixed rates.
APR assumptionsAPRs are estimates, not quotes, computed on representative purchase scenarios (20% down; 3.5% FHA with upfront and annual MIP; 0% VA with the funding fee; 0 points, except jumbo at the survey's 0.48 points) with estimated closing costs of $12,500 to $25,000; only the finance charges defined by Regulation Z (about $1,995 in lender fees, 15 days of prepaid interest, any jumbo points, and any financed upfront mortgage insurance) are included in the APR.
7/6 ARM termsRate fixed for 7 years, then adjusts every 6 months to the 30-day average SOFR plus 3.00% (6.875% fully indexed today), with 2/1/5 caps. The rate, APR and payment can increase after the fixed period.
Not an offerNational averages for information only; not an offer of credit, a commitment to lend, or a rate lock. Your rate and APR will differ.
Rates improved for a third straight week, and the improvement came out of the oil market, which can reverse in a day on one headline from the Strait of Hormuz. Tuesday's inflation report at 8:30am ET is the hinge: a cool number extends the rally, a hot one ends it. If you are closing in the next 30 days, this is a reasonable week to talk with your loan officer about locking and asking for a float-down, rather than waiting for a better print. Buying new construction? About 43% of builders are cutting prices, the highest share since at least 2020, so ask for a builder-paid buydown and a price concession, not one or the other.
The TW Rate Environment Score™
This week's rate environment: Cautious, with a new kind of risk
▼ 3 points vs last week (42 → 39).
A 0–100 read on how favorable conditions are for mortgage rates, on a locked six-factor formula. Higher = more rate-friendly.
Rate direction finally helped: the weekly benchmark fell for a third straight week, the 10-year came down 8 basis points, and the single biggest force behind this year's rate pressure, the oil market, broke hard. What offset it was volatility. The fear gauge jumped about a third as AI and chip stocks sold off, headline inflation is still 3.7% and rising, and the Fed is priced to hike again on December 9. The net is a week that was better for rates and worse for calm, which is why the reading barely moved.
03 · The why
Two forces finally pulling rates down, two still pushing up
Oil had the worst week of the war.
WTI settled at $90.83, down 12.8% from $104.12 a week earlier, and Brent fell more than 16% for its worst week since 2020. Energy accounted for over 80% of September's jump in wholesale prices and about half of the monthly rise in consumer prices, so cheaper crude is the fastest route back toward lower rates.
The market started pricing an exit from the war.
Democrats took both chambers Tuesday, President Trump said the cost of the Iran conflict was part of the reason, and Iran sent a nuclear proposal to Washington through Qatar. Tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz are still running at a near-record rate, so this is a hope rather than a fact, but it is the first time traders have put real money behind an ending.
The labor market refuses to cooperate.
October payrolls came in at 165,000 against about 59,000 expected, unemployment fell to 4.1%, wages beat forecasts, and weekly jobless claims dropped to 189,000, the lowest since 1969. A labor market this tight gives the Fed room to keep its focus on inflation instead of growth.
A December hike is about 77% priced.
The Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 in a 10 to 2 vote, with both dissenters wanting an increase, and headline inflation is 3.7% and rising. Tuesday's October CPI decides whether the December 9 hike is a formality or a fight, and lenders will reprice on it that morning.
04 · What could move rates
The week ahead: Tuesday's inflation report is the whole story
A quiet start: no major data. Treasury sells 3-year notes at 1:00pm ET, the first test of demand after the oil move.
October CPI, 8:30am ET: the week's main event. Forecasts call for a 0.3% monthly rise in the headline, down from 0.6%, and 0.2% in the core. NFIB small business optimism at 6:00am, 10-year note auction at 1:00pm.
Veterans Day. The bond market is closed and the stock market is open, so lenders price off Tuesday's close and rate sheets tend to sit still. Mortgage applications at 7:00am.
Weekly jobless claims (8:30am), expected near 193,000 after last week's 189,000. October existing home sales at 10:00am, expected near 3.87 million. Treasury sells 30-year bonds at 1:00pm.
October PPI, 8:30am. Wholesale prices are expected up 0.3% after September's 1.3% surge, which would be the clearest confirmation yet that the energy shock is draining out of the pipeline.
05 · The trend
Twelve weeks of rates and the 10-year
30-yr fixed (Freddie Mac)10-yr Treasury
Weekly Thursday readings, August 20 to November 5, 2026 (FRED: Freddie Mac PMMS and the 10-year Treasury constant maturity). The 30-year fixed rose from 6.65% to 7.18% as the 10-year went from 4.69% to 4.84%; the gap between them widened from 1.96 to 2.34 points.
The full data: dashboard, score factors, inflation, builders, timeline
Market dashboard · Friday close, Nov 6
| Measure | Latest | Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-yr Treasury | 4.86% | ▼ 8 bp | Fell on the week despite the jobs beat: the oil move outweighed it |
| 30-yr Treasury | 5.26% | ▼ 5 bp | 10s30s spread 40 bp, from 37: the long end still prices inflation risk |
| 2-yr Treasury | 4.51% | ▼ 5 bp | Front end holding a December hike as the base case |
| Freddie Mac 30-yr fixed | 7.18% | ▼ 6 bp | Third straight weekly decline, from a level 96 bp above last year |
| WTI crude | $90.83 | ▼ 12.8% | Two-month low midweek; Brent's worst week since 2020 |
| Gasoline (AAA avg) | $4.10 | ▼ 12¢ | Falling for nearly two weeks, but still more than $1 above a year ago |
| U.S. Dollar Index | 102.32 | ▲ 0.4% | Jumped Friday on the jobs report: higher rate expectations priced in |
| S&P 500 | 7,376.86 | ▼ 2.7% | AI and chip names lost roughly $2.3 trillion; some of it moved into Treasuries |
| VIX | 25.64 | ▲ 32.0% | Highest weekly close since April: the fear is in stocks now, not bonds |
| Jobless claims | 189,000 | ▼ 6,000 | Lowest since 1969; no slack showing up in the labor market |
| Existing home sales (Sep) | 3.99 million | ▲ 1.5% m/m | Inventory at 1.60 million homes gives buyers room to negotiate; October prints Thursday |
How the score is calculated
| Factor | Weight | Value | This week's reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rate direction | 30% | 66.0 | Freddie Mac 30-yr down 6 bp on the week |
| Inflation trend | 20% | 15.0 | CPI 3.7% y/y, rising vs the prior print |
| Mortgage spread | 15% | 45.0 | 7.18 − 4.86 = 2.32 points, wider |
| Builder momentum | 15% | 25.0 | Builder basket up sharply on the week; NAHB index at a 14-year low (rule: falling) |
| Market calm (VIX) | 10% | 40.0 | VIX 25.64 |
| Fed path | 10% | 15.0 | Hiking; about 77% odds of a December 9 increase |
Every input is set by a fixed rule from the data, so the same week always produces the same score.
Inflation transmission: why oil matters
| Measure | Latest | Period | What it signals |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | 3.7% y/y | September | Rising again, and energy drove about half of the monthly gain |
| Core CPI | 2.6% y/y | September | Underlying inflation is a full point tamer than the headline |
| CPI energy | +20.4% y/y | September | The whole inflation problem in one line, and the line that just broke |
| Gasoline CPI | +9.1% m/m | September | About half of September's monthly headline gain came from the pump |
| PCE (Fed's gauge) | 3.6% y/y | September | Released October 29, a day after the Fed held: still far from the 2% goal |
| Core PCE | 3.1% y/y | September | Rose from August and ran 0.3% on the month: the stickier half of the story |
| PPI | +6.3% y/y | September | Largest annual rise since 2022, with energy over 80% of the monthly jump |
September CPI and PPI were released October 14 and 15, and September PCE on October 29. October CPI arrives Tuesday, November 10 at 8:30am ET, with October PPI on Friday, November 13.
Rate-sensitive stocks · Fri Oct 30 to Fri Nov 6
| Ticker | Week | Friday close | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHM | +6.21% | $132.49 | Best week in the basket |
| TOL | +4.57% | $152.62 | |
| DHI | +4.29% | $152.27 | |
| ITB | +4.04% | $96.49 | Homebuilder ETF, back above its 200-day average |
| LEN | +2.12% | $88.78 | |
| XLRE | +1.90% | $43.99 | REITs price directly off the 10-year |
| BLDR | −3.74% | $62.48 | Gave back Wednesday's spike; building products lagged |
Friday close to Friday close, October 30 to November 6. Green = a move that tends to help mortgage-rate sentiment.
How the war premium cracked
The Fed holds at 3.75% to 4.00% in a 10 to 2 vote, but both dissenters want a hike and December stays live.
WTI settles at $104.12, capping a 15% October on tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
Democrats sweep the midterms and take both chambers. Trump says the cost of the Iran war was part of the reason.
Brent drops 9% and WTI about 8% as traders bet a Democratic Congress forces an exit from the conflict.
Oil hits a two-month low, AI and chip stocks shed roughly $2.3 trillion on fears of a regulatory crackdown, and Freddie Mac posts a third straight weekly decline at 7.18%.
October payrolls land at 165,000, nearly triple forecasts. Stocks steady, the dollar rises, and December hike odds climb back to about 77%.
The 10-year Treasury closed at 4.86% and Freddie Mac's 30-year benchmark fell for a third straight week, because oil broke, not because the Fed turned friendly. The Fed is still roughly 77% priced to raise rates on December 9, and Tuesday's October inflation report is the one number that can undo this week's improvement in either direction. If you are under contract or shopping right now, ask your loan officer this week what locking before Tuesday costs compared with floating, and whether a float-down is available on your loan.
“Mortgage rates fell for a third straight week, with Freddie Mac's 30-year benchmark at 7.18%, because oil had its worst week of the Iran war and the 10-year Treasury came down to 4.86%. The catch: Friday's jobs report was nearly triple forecasts, so a December Fed hike is back to about 77% priced, and Tuesday's inflation report can move lender pricing the same morning. If your buyer is shopping new construction, builders are cutting prices at the highest rate since at least 2020 and builder-paid buydowns are widely available.”
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Rates move daily.
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Sources, methodology & disclaimer
Figures were verified against primary sources at publication. Conventional, FHA and VA rates are the Optimal Blue OBMMI average of actual locked loans as of the Friday, November 6 close (FRED posts each day's value the next business day). The jumbo rate is the MBA Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending October 30, 2026, one week behind the other rows. Macro figures are Friday, November 6 closes. Rate measures are never averaged across providers because samples, timing, points and borrower profiles differ. Weekly changes are Friday close to Friday close unless noted.
- Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Indices (OBMMI) via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: conventional, FHA and VA lock averages, Friday, November 6, 2026 close.
- Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Applications Survey (jumbo row, as reprinted in MBA NewsLink): week ending October 30, 2026, released November 4, 2026.
- Mortgage News Daily Daily Rate Index (7/6 SOFR ARM series and fixed-rate cross-checks), November 6, 2026.
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released November 5, 2026.
- U.S. Department of the Treasury daily par yield curve, November 6, 2026 close.
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York: 30-day average SOFR via FRED, November 6, 2026.
- Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index, September 2026 (CPI-U, not seasonally adjusted, via FRED).
- CME FedWatch: December 8–9, 2026 FOMC probabilities as of November 6, 2026 (cross-checked against post-payrolls coverage from InvestmentNews and Invezz); Federal Reserve FOMC statement and 10 to 2 vote, October 28, 2026, target range 3.75% to 4.00%.
- CNBC and RTE: WTI and Brent settlements and weekly changes, Friday, November 6, 2026.
- AAA: national average gasoline price, weekly report dated November 5, 2026.
- Market closes for Friday, October 30 and Friday, November 6, 2026: S&P 500, VIX, U.S. Dollar Index (Cappnotes Closing Look, cross-checked with Yahoo Finance market coverage).
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: Employment Situation, October 2026, released November 6, 2026.
- U.S. Department of Labor: initial jobless claims, week ended October 31, 2026.
- National Association of Realtors: Existing-Home Sales, September 2026.
- NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, October 2026 (29, with 43% of builders cutting prices).
- Builder-stock and ETF Friday closes, October 30 and November 6, 2026 (stockanalysis.com).
- Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index, September 2026 (released October 14 and 15); Bureau of Economic Analysis: Personal Income and Outlays (PCE), September 2026, released October 29, 2026.
- Next week's calendar: SIFMA holiday schedule (bond market closed November 11), U.S. Treasury tentative auction schedule, and economic calendars from Trading Economics and Economic Weekly; BLS and BEA release schedules.
- News: Al Jazeera, NPR, CNBC and Washington Post coverage of the midterm result, the AI selloff and the post-election move in oil, November 4–6, 2026.
Disclaimer: This report is for general educational and informational purposes only and reflects data as of November 6, 2026; it does not update automatically after publication. It is not financial, investment, tax, or lending advice, and not a commitment to lend, a rate lock, or an offer of credit. Data is sourced from public reporting and may be revised or restated after this report is published. Mortgage rates referenced will vary by credit profile, loan type, down payment, property type, and lender, and can change daily. Verify all figures independently before relying on them for a financial decision.
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